The question I hear most from property owners and investors is simple: Should I wait for rates to come down? A year ago, many people expected that answer to come quickly. It has not. The Federal Reserve has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% and the rate-cut story that many buyers and sellers were counting on has, at least for now, stalled.
Yet commercial real estate activity is adjusting, if not beginning to recover:
- U.S. CRE transaction value: $179.9B in Q4 2025, up 20.2% year-over-year
- 2026 investment volume forecast: Up 16% nationally
- Transactions tracked in the Scarborough CRE internal comp database: Nearly tripled from 2023–2025
- Typical closing sale price compared to listing price: ~97 cents on the dollar, up from ~94 cents two years ago
This tells me the gap between buyers and sellers is tightening, which is what a functioning market looks like.
Income durability is now the whole ballgame, and that favors many of the property types East Texas does well. Necessity-based retail, medical, and industrial properties with strong tenants are still drawing attention. A well-leased neighborhood center in Tyler with grocery, service, medical, or food tenants fits the kind of durable-income profile many buyers are prioritizing today.
Tyler’s fundamentals continue to support long-term confidence as well. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Tyler’s population at 113,723 as of July 1, 2025, up 7.4% from the April 2020 estimate base. The area continues to benefit from steady employment, new development, and growth across manufacturing, health care, retail, and service-based industries.
That does not mean every deal works. It means good real estate with durable income, realistic pricing, and strong local fundamentals still has a market. In this cycle, discipline matters. Hope is not a strategy. Income, location, tenant quality, and basis are what will separate good deals from bad ones.
Scarborough Commercial Real Estate is here to help owners and investors read this environment clearly and act with confidence.
Source Notes: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, June 17, 2026; Altus Group Q4 2025 U.S. Investment & Transactions Report; CBRE 2026 U.S. Real Estate Market Outlook; U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts for Tyler, Texas; Scarborough CRE internal comp database.
Originally published in the Tyler Morning Telegraph.
